“... According to Gregory Waters from the Counter Extremism Project, the Syrian desert has been instrumental for ISIS as it operates like training grounds, churning out the next generations of fighters often lured from vulnerable socio-economic backgrounds. Therefore, the geographical intricacies of Syria and neighboring regions become conducive to intensified recruitment and mobilization activities for ISIS. This high-stakes game of power is not limited to affairs rooted within Afghanistan; neighboring regions such as Pakistan are also under scrutiny. The rugged terrain of Afghanistan presents it as a calculated choice for guerrilla warfare tactics favored by Islamic militants.” 

"IS had maintained training camps in the Syrian desert for many years, according to Gregory Waters, a research analyst at the Counter Extremism Project who closely follows IS activities in central Syria.

"These are the places where it trains the next generation of fighters — often children it recruits from northeast Syria — and where adult fighters can return to in between their operations," Waters told VOA. "While the central Syrian desert is under Russian and Syrian regime control, ISIS does not abide by these arbitrary lines.""

"... However, experts warn that without continued pressure, the group may attempt to regroup and continue guerrilla-style attacks in Iraq and Syria, and the complete withdrawal of the US contingent from Iraq planned for 2025 risks becoming a boomerang as happened in Afghanistan in 2021. According to data from the United States Central Command, published in January 2024, ISIS has around 2,500 active fighters between Iraq and Syria, of which around 1,000 are in Iraq. Speaking of Syria, according to data from the Counter Extremism Project (CEP) ISIS carried out at least 16 attacks in September in the governorates of Aleppo, Homs, Hama, Raqqa and Deir Ez Zor. These attacks killed at least 32 pro-Assad soldiers and one civilian and wounded at least 21 others."

"The organization Counter Extremism Project counted around 70 attacks in Syria alone in March this year. Islamic State cells have also regained some of their strength in parts of Africa and South Asia."

"Edmund Fitton-Brown, Senior Advisor to the Counter Extremism Project and former Ambassador of the UK to Yemen, told MailOnline: 'ISIS methodically kept itself alive during the height of military and counterterrorism pressure it faced by creating a global structure of mutually supportive regional networks.'"

"But IS has not disappeared. According to the US Central Command, there are currently around 2,500 IS fighters in both countries who are also carrying out attacks. The Counter Extremism Project organisation counted around 70 attacks in Syria alone in March of this year. IS cells have also regained some strength in parts of Africa and South Asia."

“A 28-year-old Libyan apparently planned an attack on the Israeli embassy in Berlin. "The perpetrator had sought advice on how to carry out the attack, but had not yet procured the weapons," says security expert Hans-Jakob Schindler.”

“…An 18-year-old Islamist in Munich, for example, radicalized on TikTok, about to attack the Israeli consulate. Only the quick intervention of the police prevented a catastrophe. The problem: Such cases often go unnoticed for a long time. “Without communication with other terrorists, it is extremely difficult for the authorities to identify such attackers at an early stage,” explains Hans-Jakob Schindler of the Counter Extremism Project.”

"'You still have a central media service and a central command that directed, for example, the attacks in Russia. But right now I think there is a much more diverse network recruiting these young people,' says Pieter Van Ostaeyen, an analyst who has been researching the IS group for over a decade and also monitors it for the Counter Extremism Project, an international think tank."

"Edmund Fitton-Brown, Senior Advisor to the Counter Extremism Project and former Ambassador of the UK to Yemen, told MailOnline: 'ISIS methodically kept itself alive during the height of military and counterterrorism pressure it faced by creating a global structure of mutually supportive regional networks.'

He said those operating out of Afghanistan, East Africa and West Africa have been 'particularly effective'.

'The regional network structure allows for a formerly "remote province" like Khorasan to step up and enable international attacks if it has the capacity to do so.

'That capacity is partly enabled by funds authorised by the leadership in Syria.

'Khorasan is also important because of diasporas: Uzbek, Chechen, Daghestani and especially Tajik.

'These ethnicities provide networks that link Afghanistan, Turkey, Central Asia, the Caucasus with target venues in Russia, Iran, Germany, Scandinavia, France.'"