CEP Senior Advisor Edmund Fitton-Brown writes: "Iran’s 45-year trajectory from the Khomeini revolution to its current challenge to Israel, the West, and the Rules-Based International System (RBIS) led to developing and solidifying its “Axis of Resistance.” Tehran supports and coordinates this group of regional proxies, including Yemen’s Houthis, Hamas, and Lebanese Hezbollah, to challenge its enemies in various theaters. A key Iranian proxy is found among the Iraqi Shia, who have a history with Iran that goes back to the Saddam Hussein era but whose full value to Tehran only started to be realized after the 2003 US invasion made Iraq’s largest community dominant in that nation’s politics."

"... However, experts warn that without continued pressure, the group may attempt to regroup and continue guerrilla-style attacks in Iraq and Syria, and the complete withdrawal of the US contingent from Iraq planned for 2025 risks becoming a boomerang as happened in Afghanistan in 2021. According to data from the United States Central Command, published in January 2024, ISIS has around 2,500 active fighters between Iraq and Syria, of which around 1,000 are in Iraq. Speaking of Syria, according to data from the Counter Extremism Project (CEP) ISIS carried out at least 16 attacks in September in the governorates of Aleppo, Homs, Hama, Raqqa and Deir Ez Zor. These attacks killed at least 32 pro-Assad soldiers and one civilian and wounded at least 21 others."

"The organization Counter Extremism Project counted around 70 attacks in Syria alone in March this year. Islamic State cells have also regained some of their strength in parts of Africa and South Asia."

"Edmund Fitton-Brown, Senior Advisor to the Counter Extremism Project and former Ambassador of the UK to Yemen, told MailOnline: 'ISIS methodically kept itself alive during the height of military and counterterrorism pressure it faced by creating a global structure of mutually supportive regional networks.'"

"Analysts also have pointed to worrisome indications that the group is resurging, particularly in central Syria. For example, ISIS militants conducted at least 215 attacks in Syria in 2023, a 168% increase over the total in 2022, the international nonprofit Counter Extremism Project said in a March report."