“... The people who have been in prison so far cannot therefore be described as prisoners or detainees. "They are hostages of the regime," says Schindler, who now heads the Counter Extremism Project, a think tank that focuses on terrorism. Ultimately, the Iranians are not interested in giving the German detainees a fair trial, but rather in convicting them on flimsy evidence in order to use them as political bargaining chips. This was also the case with Helmut Hofer. "The Iranians' idea was to exchange him for the terrorist Darabi and his accomplices," says Schindler. Kazem Darabi was the mastermind behind the Mykonos attack in Berlin, in which four Kurdish politicians in exile were killed. He was sentenced to life imprisonment. Germany did not allow itself to be blackmailed by Iran.” 

The main issue from the US perspective is the Iranian nuclear program: Washington wants to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. However, Iran is systematically complicating the negotiations, says Middle East expert Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the Counter Extremism Project, in an interview with this newsroom. "First, they change the location from Istanbul to Oman. Then they announce that they explicitly do not want to discuss their missile program. The regime is a master at negotiating in such a way as to avoid reaching an agreement if possible."

"The Iranian regime wants to send two messages. Domestically: 'We are strong.' And internationally: 'We can also defend ourselves,'" explains Middle East expert Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the Counter Extremism Project, in an interview with the Frankfurter Rundschau by Ippen.Media. In this tense situation, however, it's playing with fire: "It already has the potential to be suicidal. Or to put it another way: One has to ask whether they've lost their minds," says Schindler. "Flying a drone that close is quite clearly a provocation."

What does Iran hope to achieve with this provocation? What does this mean for the nuclear talks? Can a US attack on Iran currently be ruled out? Jessica Zahedi discusses this with Middle East expert [CEP Senior Director] Hans-Jakob Schindler on ZDFheute live.

[CEP Senior Director] Iran expert Hans-Jakob Schindler sees the mullah regime in a “lose-lose situation.” Making major concessions to the US would be risky and could provoke a coup by the Revolutionary Guards.

"It is likely that, similar to Ali Khamenei's case in 1989, the decision will fall on a weak candidate. In 1989, Khamenei was considered harmless by all religious schools in Qom because he lacked his own religious power base," Hans-Jakob Schindler, head of the Berlin-based think tank Counter Extremism Project, told our editorial team. "Now it will be crucial to find a candidate who does not pose an obvious threat to the enormous power of the various branches of the Revolutionary Guard, but who maintains good relations with the Guard's overall organization." However, the negotiations within the Assembly of Experts could also result in a leadership body of religious clerics instead of a new Supreme Leader.