What happens now? How likely is it that the US will attack Iran? Barbara Parente discusses this live on ZDFheute with ZDF correspondents David Sauer in Washington and Phoebe Gaa in Tehran, as well as Middle East expert [CEP Senior Director] Hans-Jakob Schindler.

How does the drone attack on an American aircraft carrier fit into this precarious situation? "The Iranian regime wants to send two messages. Domestically: 'We are strong.' And internationally: 'We can also defend ourselves,'" explains Middle East expert Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the Counter Extremism Project, in an interview with the Frankfurter Rundschau by Ippen.Media. In this tense situation, however, it's playing with fire: "It already has the potential to be suicidal. Or to put it another way: One has to ask whether they've lost their minds," says Schindler. "Flying a drone that close is quite clearly a provocation."

In Iran, leading reformist politicians were arrested following mass protests. The regime is resorting to repression while the economic crisis continues. “The only option is to keep people off the streets by applying pressure,” says [CEP Senior Director] Hans-Jakob Schindler, Iran expert, on WELT TV.

The main issue from the US perspective is the Iranian nuclear program: Washington wants to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. However, Iran is systematically complicating the negotiations, says Middle East expert Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the Counter Extremism Project, in an interview with this newsroom. "First, they change the location from Istanbul to Oman. Then they announce that they explicitly do not want to discuss their missile program. The regime is a master at negotiating in such a way as to avoid reaching an agreement if possible."

"The Iranian regime wants to send two messages. Domestically: 'We are strong.' And internationally: 'We can also defend ourselves,'" explains Middle East expert Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the Counter Extremism Project, in an interview with the Frankfurter Rundschau by Ippen.Media. In this tense situation, however, it's playing with fire: "It already has the potential to be suicidal. Or to put it another way: One has to ask whether they've lost their minds," says Schindler. "Flying a drone that close is quite clearly a provocation."

What does Iran hope to achieve with this provocation? What does this mean for the nuclear talks? Can a US attack on Iran currently be ruled out? Jessica Zahedi discusses this with Middle East expert [CEP Senior Director] Hans-Jakob Schindler on ZDFheute live.

[CEP Senior Director] Iran expert Hans-Jakob Schindler sees the mullah regime in a “lose-lose situation.” Making major concessions to the US would be risky and could provoke a coup by the Revolutionary Guards.

"It is likely that, similar to Ali Khamenei's case in 1989, the decision will fall on a weak candidate. In 1989, Khamenei was considered harmless by all religious schools in Qom because he lacked his own religious power base," Hans-Jakob Schindler, head of the Berlin-based think tank Counter Extremism Project, told our editorial team. "Now it will be crucial to find a candidate who does not pose an obvious threat to the enormous power of the various branches of the Revolutionary Guard, but who maintains good relations with the Guard's overall organization." However, the negotiations within the Assembly of Experts could also result in a leadership body of religious clerics instead of a new Supreme Leader.

According to terrorism expert [CEP Senior Director] Hans-Jakob Schindler, Israel and Saudi Arabia have warned the Trump administration against rushing into air strikes against Iran. An attack at this point in time could backfire, as the regime is not yet sufficiently weakened.

“As a pure sanction, this would have relatively few consequences. But it would send a strong political signal,” says extremism expert and Middle East specialist Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the Counter Extremism Project in Berlin. In recent years, sanctions have repeatedly been imposed on the Guard by the United Nations, the US, and the EU, including freezing all assets in the EU and travel bans.