Weakened by a French military intervention in 2013 in Mali, Ag Ghaly bounced back in 2017 by uniting the Ansar Dine, Katiba Macina and Al-Mourabitoun groups to form JNIM.

His nickname is "the strategist", said Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the think tank Counter-Extremism Project (CEP). A highly experienced organiser, his long contacts with Al-Qaeda and the "successes" of the JNIM have made him a respected emir, Schindler added.

Analysts with the Counter Extremism Project recently warned that a JNIM victory in Mali could make it the first country ruled by al-Qaida. Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, believes a JNIM victory could result in indirect rule instead.

Hans-Jakob Schindler, Senior Director of the Counter Extremism Project, frames the problem in similarly stark terms. “There are two primary terrorist threats that can be identified,” he tells The Cipher Brief. “First of all, the rapid expansion of the al- Qaeda affiliate JNIM as well as the ISIS affiliates ISSP and ISWAP in the Sahel region has destabilized several countries, in particular Burkina Faso, Mali and to a growing extent also Niger, with continuing serious security problems in the North of Nigeria.” “The Sahel region is also a key network hub for the international drug transportation pipeline of Hezbollah-linked drugs that are transported from South America via West Africa to Europe for sale there,” he explained. “This pipeline directly funds Hezbollah’s activities in Lebanon. Given the central role that the U.S. is playing in the current negotiations between Hezbollah and Israel, this income stream for Hezbollah will continue to ensure that this terror group will be able to continue to fund its activities both within Lebanon and beyond.”

The militants have seized large amounts of weaponry from government forces and demonstrated their ability to use drones, says the Counter Extremism Project (CEP), which analyzes terrorist groups.