News and Media

At the end of 2017, the Syrian regime and Russian President Vladimir Putin proudly proclaimed their militaries’ victory over ISIS.Andrew Roth, “On visit to Syria, Putin lauds victory over ISIS and announces withdrawals,” The Washington Post, December 11, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/world/putin-russian-forces-will-start-withdrawing-from-syria/2017/12/11/9d9e6bdc-de72-11e7-b2e9-8c636f076c76_video.html; “Al-Boukamal city declared fully liberated,” Syrian Arab News Agency, November 9, 2017, https://sana.sy/en/?p=117602. The terrorist group had lost all of the urban centers—and ostensibly the rural areas—it once controlled west of the Euphrates River. Nevertheless, ISIS has been able to effectively wage a sophisticated and deadly insurgency throughout regime-held central Syria for more than two-and-a-half years, as detailed  in “‘A Force They Haven’t Seen Before’: Insurgent ISIS in Central Syria” by this author.

ISIS has deployed IEDs and mines, small arms, anti-tank guided missiles and RPGs, car bombs, and fake checkpoints to repeatedly ambush Syrian regime and Russian forces in the Deir Ez Zor, Homs, Raqqa, and Hama governorates. ISIS attacks have spanned more than 15,000 square miles—striking as far west as Khunayfis (just 40 miles from Damascus governorate) and as far north as Rahjan, Hama (just 15 miles from Idlib governorate), and along the length of the Euphrates from Boukamal in the south to Ruseifa in the north.

ISIS has proven to operate a robust intelligence gathering system in central Syria. The group is reportedly responsible for killing high-value targets such as Syrian and Iranian commanders using mines and IEDs and has successfully avoided regime strongpoints during its deep pushes “behind enemy lines,” finding roads through undefended parts of the countryside. In doing so, ISIS has managed to effectively control territory at various times, most recently controlling the crucial Bishri Mountains bordering the Raqqa, Homs, and Deir Ez Zor governorates from April 2019 through February 2020.

For its part, the Syrian regime and its Hezbollah and Iranian allies have been unable to make any serious advances against ISIS’s insurgent cells. Regime anti-ISIS operations appear to consist of military convoys driving from point A to point B and occasionally combing largely empty hamlets throughout the Syrian desert (known as the Badia). Russian assistance has almost exclusively come in the form of air support during the few prolonged ISIS engagements, such as during the two-day battle that took place between Sukhnah and Humaymah beginning on April 9, 2020.

Based on martyrdom reports published by pro-regime Facebook pages, ISIS attacks have killed at least 887 pro-regime fighters, with actual figures likely being twice that.For an explanation on the methodology and limitations of using martyrdom reports for assessing combat losses, see: Gregory Waters, “’A Force They Haven’t Seen Before’: Insurgent ISIS in Central Syria,” Middle East Institute, April 15, 2020,  https://www.mei.edu/publications/force-they-havent-seen-insurgent-isis-central-syria. In April 2020, ISIS killed at least 27 Syrian loyalists in Homs, Deir Ez Zor, Raqqa, and Hama. On April 9, ISIS launched two simultaneous attacks in Homs—the first just north of Humaymah and the second south of Sukhna—followed by a third attack deep in north Hama the next day. Clashes in Homs continued for two days and reportedly involved Russian airstrikes. ISIS continued carrying out smaller scale attacks over the next 10 days, ending in an ambush in the Bishri Mountains that left five local loyalist fighters dead. On April 22, the Syrian regime launched a two-day anti-ISIS operation that claimed to target ISIS cells across the entirety of central Syria. However, the regime has not produced evidence of captured or killed ISIS fighters from these operations, and on April 25, ISIS again renewed its attacks near the city of Mayadeen, Deir Ez Zor. Furthermore, on April 30, ISIS successfully ambushed a bus carrying Syrian Arab Army soldiers from southern Deir Ez Zor to Palmyra, killing at least six of them.

ISIS continues to benefit from a high degree of local support and a porous border with Iraq. Unless Damascus can impact these conditions, their hopes of effectively defeating ISIS, even with Russian assistance, will be minimal.

These April attacks and regime anti-ISIS operations are mapped below. ISIS attacks are coded quarterly since January 2018, while anti-ISIS operations are coded by specific date starting in April 2020.

To view an interactive version of this map, please click here.

One of the many intrusive thoughts I’ve had during this long lockdown period is how Western audiences have been so undernourished with decent TV & film fiction on jihadism. The ideological struggle of the Cold War produced some timeless fiction, from the bleak and terrifying ‘Threads’ and the LeCarre classic ‘The Spy Who Came in From the Cold’ to From Russia with Love and Rocky IV. Yes, even the outright propaganda was good. It turns out the looming threat of nuclear annihilation can really provide that creative spark.

While we lack the Cold War catalogue when it comes to jihadism, there have been some decent efforts, alongside one or two homeruns in the 2-3 decades since militant Islamism started to emerge in the West. So, if you’re all done baking and learning a new language (right) and you’ve been for your state sanctioned walk, here’s a list for your lockdown viewing pleasure.

Before we get started, a quick plug for Clint Eastwood’s latest film, Richard Jewell. Although its focus is the experience of a man’s torrid experience in the aftermath of the ‘96 Atlanta bombing, I can’t technically include it on the list because the focus isn’t jihadism. That said, I literally just watched it and so should you. The performance from unknown actor Paul Walter Hauser left with me with “something in my eye” for much of the movie, and Sam Rockwell is just a legend.

Anyway, the actual list (in no particular order):

CALIPHATE

This Swedish TV series dares to take viewers to the heart of Islamic State’s Caliphate and delve into the recruitment of Swedish youth. The depiction of life in Raqqa is compelling, and at least compared to some of the incredible footage obtained by Vice News of life inside the Caliphate, the show does feel realistic – quite an achievement given the budget compared to the average HBO production. It doesn’t shy away from the brutality of Islamic State straight off the bat: a public amputation and rowdy fighters celebrating a major terror attack in Turkey. I will be sure to tweet my dissatisfaction if it takes a turn for the worse after the first few episodes.  

HOMELAND

Okay okay so I never watched after Season 2. I’m a believer in the low-budget British principle of quality over quantity when it comes to TV shows: think Sherlock (before it got weird…), The (British) Office and Fawlty Towers. Nevertheless, the first two seasons of this American remake of the popular Israeli show ‘Prisoners of War’ had me hooked. I’m in good company, Barack Obama is a fan. The show never had you sure you knew the truth, nor who the good guys or bad guys were - perfect. Maybe lockdown means I’ll make it through the other six seasons.  

PATRIOT’S DAY

The film can be a little… Mark Wahlberg, if you know what I mean. That said, the dramatization of the Boston Marathon bombings and the enthralling inter-agency manhunt for the bombers is exceptionally well done. As noted by the New York Times, the movie declines to really get into the ideological motivations of the Tsarnaev brothers, a common frustration for fiction based on jihadist terror. Despite this, the dynamic between the lazy stoner younger sibling and his committed older brother is fascinating and the fortitude of the bombing survivors is a sight to behold.

15:17 TO PARIS

Clint Eastwood makes another appearance. As an Americanophile (is that a word?), the teary-eyed flag waving of some American movies is off putting to some, but catnip to me. As such, I was slightly taken in by this lovely story about 3 young Americans whose bravery prevented a massacre on a packed train in France in 2015. The most interesting part? The real-life heroes are playing themselves. 

MADE IN FRANCE

Where the British do bleak (very little teary-eyed flag waving to be found) there is something especially dark and gritty about France’s takes on subjects like terrorism. In this case, even the timing was gritty, as Made in France’s 2015 cinematic release was postponed after the catastrophic year it turned out to be – starting with the Charlie Hebdo atrocity all the way to the horrors unleashed across Paris eleven months later. The film starts with great promise, a French-Algerian journalist has infiltrated a homegrown terror cell plotting a major attack in Paris, but ultimately takes a few disappointing turns and fails to tackle the subject matter with as much rigor or depth as terrorism nerds will be crying out for.

Side note: I have it on good authority from terrorism expert Andrew Zammit (who recently wrote an investigation for CTC Sentinel that sounds straight out of a movie) that another French production, The Bureau is worth a watch.

HOTEL MUMBAI

Based on real events, there isn’t much of a ‘plot’ as such, but the sheer heroism of the staff at the Taj Mahal Palace hotel during the horrors of the 2008 Mumbai attacks conducted by Lashkar-e-Taiba (co-founded by Abdullah Azzam – the father of global jihad) deserves its own movie and so much more. The film does not shy away from showing the callous brutality of the terrorists, and as such, it is not for the faint of heart.

THE LOOMING TOWER

Lawrence Wright’s Pulitzer Prize winner is one of the most important books ever written on terrorism, charting al-Qaeda’s road to the 9/11 attacks and the inter-agency rivalries of which the 9/11 Commission was so scathing. The TV adaptation centers around an up and coming Ali Soufan, the Lebanese American FBI agent, and his mentor John O’Neill tracking al-Qaeda in the lead up 9/11. The show is fascinating in its depiction of intelligence agencies on the tail of real-life figures in the global jihadist movement, and the atrocities of that terrible September day are depicted with exceptional care.  

And now for the absolute cream of the crop:

FAUDA

Netflix has grabbed this hit Israeli show and relabeled it as ‘Original’ – and I am so glad they did. In something of an unprecedented development for an Israeli TV show, Fauda also has the distinction of being one of the most watched shows in the Arab World.

As over the top as it is utterly gripping, the digestible episodes come in at well under an hour each, invariably ending with the show’s lead, Doron, about to do something utterly outrageous – meaning Netflix’s autoplay next episode function has never been put to better use. Just to add a little magic, the lead actor and producer, Lior Raz, really did serve in the elite Mista'arvim unit the show is based on.

That Season 2 is about Isis makes it both relevant and usefully – eligible for this list. Be sure to watch with the original audio and English subtitles rather than dubbed.

FOUR LIONS

It simply does not get better than this. A genuine laugh out loud spectacle confronting a very serious and sensitive topic without fear. Among all the cultural and political sensitivities that come with tackling Jihadist terror, this film shows exactly how to do it. Taking ruthless aim at both the hapless wannabe mujahideen and the security services chasing them, this is satire royalty Chris Morris at his very best. It gets five stars just for the line about establishing the "Islamic State of Tinsley" – a dreary English suburb. 

I recently watched the original “Tottenham Ayatollah” documentary, a look into the life of al-Muhajiroun founder Omar Bakri Muhammed – with the added Easter egg of a fresh faced, suited and booted Anjem Choudary. There are shadows of these characters in Four Lions and I’m certain Morris will have watched this documentary, but we now know some of these men are much more dangerous than their sheer novelty suggests. The great paradox of Four Lions is the depiction of how utterly ridiculous the would-be terrorists are, juxtaposed with the nagging awareness of just how close they are to unleashing mass murder. After all, people just as preposterous have pulled off much worse than the jokers in this satirical masterpiece. 

Liam Duffy (@LiamSD12) is an advisor on extremism and counterterrorism based in London. Liam has previously delivered the British government's domestic terrorism prevention strategy, Prevent, and designed and delivered CVE programs in both the U.K. and overseas. He regularly comments on extremism in the U.K. media and has written on the subject for the Times Educational Supplement, the Jewish Chronicle, and CapX among others. 

On April 30, Germany took the long overdue step of designating Hezbollah in its entirety as a terrorist group. It is past time that the European Union update its own designation of Hezbollah and ban the group in its entirety in order to limit its activities on the continent.

The EU formalized its Hezbollah stance in 2013, outlawing Hezbollah’s so-called military wing while drawing a distinction with the group’s political wing, which is a key player in the Lebanese government. The EU took this minimalist step in response to Hezbollah’s actions in the Syrian civil war and the 2012 bus bombing in Burgas, Bulgaria, which killed five Israelis and a Bulgarian bus driver. Bulgaria initially found “clear signs” of Hezbollah’s responsibility, though prosecutors failed to indict the terror group specifically.

Concerns about Europe’s relations with Lebanon prevented a full ban of the group while the EU pledged to continue dialogue with all of Lebanon’s political groups. This wrongly presupposes that Hezbollah is a responsible political actor in Lebanon. It is not. Hezbollah has, in the past, turned its weapons on Lebanese citizens and institutions when it has disagreed with the government. Hezbollah has also held the country hostage politically by collapsing governing coalitions and stalling the election of a new president for two years. Through all of this, Hezbollah has unnecessarily involved Lebanon in the civil war in neighboring Syria. And yet Hezbollah is the leading political force in Lebanon, where the newly formed government is dominated by Hezbollah allies.

The EU’s 2013 designation drew international praise but the decision to differentiate between Hezbollah’s military and political wings rightfully drew criticism and concern that this artificial division would make enforcement untenable. Not surprisingly, some of the loudest criticism at the time came from Hezbollah itself, which said the designation would have no effect on it. Hezbollah leaders also reiterated what the EU should also have known: there are no separate military and political wings in Hezbollah. Per Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem: “We don’t have a military wing and a political one; we don’t have Hezbollah on one hand and the resistance party on the other… Every element of Hezbollah, from commanders to members as well as our various capabilities, are in the service of the resistance, and we have nothing but the resistance as a priority.”

Clearly Hezbollah is a singular organization. Its fighters along the Israeli border and its politicians in Lebanon all answer to Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, who in turns answers to Iran.

German authorities estimate that there are more than 1,000 Hezbollah supporters in the country and 30 mosques and Islamic cultural centers linked to the group. On the same day Germany banned Hezbollah, police raided Islamic centers across the country suspected of providing financial aid to and propaganda for the terror group. In March, Austria opened prosecution against a suspected Hezbollah commander who had been operating in the country for 13 years. In 2013, a Cypriot court sentenced Lebanese-Swedish national Hossam Taleb Yaccoub to three years in prison for planning attacks on Israeli targets. Hezbollah had paid Yaccoub since 2011 to collect information on Israeli tourists, including Israeli flights arriving in Cyprus and registration plates of buses carrying Israeli tourists. Hezbollah spies have also allegedly operated from Denmark, Greece, and other European countries. Indeed, Hezbollah has been targeting Europe for decades. On June 14, 1985, Hezbollah terrorists hijacked TWA Flight 847 on its way from Athens to Rome and demanded the release of more than 700 prisoners held in Israel, Cyprus, and Kuwait in exchange for hostages. Hezbollah is clearly active in Europe, despite the group’s protests to the contrary.

Germany is not the first European nation to take action against Hezbollah. The Netherlands has long outlawed the terror group in its entirety. The United Kingdom has also recently taken the step forward to ban Hezbollah in its entirety.

In the face of overwhelming evidence of Hezbollah’s crimes and presence in Europe, Germany’s latest action is long overdue. And for the European Union to continue to refuse to take the same step is a denial of the reality of Hezbollah. It is time for the European Union to act decisively and recognize Hezbollah—all of Hezbollah—for what it is.

Earlier this month, ISIS warned its followers through its al-Naba newsletter to “stay away from the land of the epidemic” by avoiding Europe and other areas affected by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). While this initially seemed like a silver lining as the world grapples with the global pandemic, extremists around the world are adapting their tactics to take advantage of the pressure on the health-care industry and upheaval of the global economy caused by the virus.

The N.J. Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness (NJOHSP) has warned that domestic and foreign terrorists seek to inspire supporters to exploit the coronavirus. On Wednesday, the U.S. Justice Department called for those who intentionally spread the virus to be charged under terrorism laws.

Unfortunately, we have already seen multiple calls and attempts to weaponize the virus, which transmits via airborne droplets from sneezing or coughing, thus making it relatively easy to spread intentionally.

On March 1, New York-based Bahgat Saber posted a video to his Facebook account calling on Egyptians to intentionally infect friends and family who work for the government of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Saber is an alleged supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist organization that briefly ruled Egypt in 2012 and 2013. The Brotherhood is officially opposed to violence and so it is unlikely its leadership would approve of Saber’s actions. While the leadership may not approve, such actions are in line with the Brotherhood’s ideology, which has inspired various forms of terrorism around the world. And despite ISIS’s initial warning to its supporters to stay away from infected areas, NJOHSP has warned that group is actively encouraging followers to attack vulnerable populations. According to NJOHSP, some ISIS supporters have referred to the virus itself as a “soldier of Allah,” while others have called it a divine punishment against infidels.

The virus has resulted in disruptions to society caused by widespread quarantines and social distancing. While necessary to stem the spread of the coronavirus, these conditions are also ripe for white nationalist accelerationists seeking the collapse of society. In February, federal authorities reported conversations on the encrypted messaging service Telegram referencing the “obligation” of white nationalists to spread coronavirus if they should contract it. According to the Federal Protective Service of the Department of Homeland Security, these discussions took place among followers of neo-Nazi James Mason, author of the book Siege, an anthology of pro-Nazi newsletters that calls for the creation of independent terror cells to bring about a societal collapse. Siege inspired the white nationalist group Atomwaffen Division, which is linked to at least five murders in the United States. Mason announced Atomwaffen Division’s dissolution earlier this month because of increasing legal pressures, but Siege nevertheless continues to inspire others.

The FBI has also warned of white nationalists instructing followers to use spray bottles to spread bodily fluids infected with the virus, targeting law enforcement and Jews in particular out of misguided beliefs that Jews either created the virus or seek to capitalize on it financially.

While there is currently no evidence that the virus is transmitted through food, according to food safety experts, the virus presents a new threat to the security of our food supply as the virus can live for days on surfaces, including grocery items. Earlier this week, a grocery store in Pennsylvania threw out $35,000 worth of food after a woman coughed on meats, baked goods, and other products in what the store called “a very twisted prank.” Also this week, a New Jersey man was charged with making terrorist threats after he told an employee at a Wegmans grocery store he had the novel coronavirus and proceeded to cough on her. Another man in Missouri was charged this week with making a terrorist threat after he filmed himself licking deodorant at a Walmart.

The novel coronavirus has changed the way society behaves, from social interactions to employment. As we adapt in order to stem the spread of the virus, we must at the same time consider how to adapt our security measures as this pandemic brings with it new threats of bioterrorism.