CEP Strategic Advisor Liam Duffy writes: While the official counter-terror lexicon of most states labels such outbursts as ‘Islamist terrorism’, what authorities usually mean by that is the jihadist violence of the likes of Al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS). Among the steady trickle of stabbings or vehicle-ramming attacks, there are indeed those either claimed by IS – such as the 2024 Solingen mass stabbings – or those attributed to IS by the perpetrator, such as the vehicle ramming in New Orleans which ushered in the New Year. There are also those where the mental health of the attacker does indeed seem the most pertinent factor.

The threat of violence has never been far away from crowded jails but the problem is now endemic. The rehabilitation of offenders cannot happen within an unstable system. As the former prison governor Ian Acheson says: “Broken staff cannot help fix broken people.” A key factor in the crisis of authority in UK jails has been the rise of Islamist gangs after the jailing of radicals for terrorist attacks and plots. Almost 16,000 inmates in England and Wales now ­identify themselves as Muslim after a 190 per cent rise in their numbers in 22 years due to sentencing and religious conversions behind bars. Almost a decade ago, Mr Acheson warned the Commons justice committee that “all the ingredients for radicalisation” in jails were present. Islamist gang culture, sometimes expressed in loyalty to the Muslim Brotherhood, mixes with ordinary criminality. Conversion to Islam behind bars is driven partly by the protection offered by gang membership in increasingly anarchic settings.

Imam Abdullah S. has not committed any crimes to date. In the YouTube video, he also denies ever having advocated violence. However, Hans-Jakob Schindler of the research organization "Counter Extremism Project" expresses understanding for the Free State's harsh approach: The free democratic basic order could also be endangered "by targeted actions without direct calls for violence against the free democratic basic order."

CEP Senior Advisor Ian Acheson quoted: "Back in 2016 the former prison governor Ian Acheson produced an official review of the threat of Islamist extremism in prisons, probation and youth justice, and the capability of the National Offender Management Service to control it."

"One of them, Dr Hans-Jakob Schindler (Senior Director of the Counter Extremism Project), addressed the situation of Samidoun in Germany, a country where administrative ban measures were taken in 2023."

CEP Advisor Liam Duffy writes: "“MI5 has one hell of a job on its hands.” That was the warning yesterday from the agency’s Director-General, Ken McCallum, in a speech which touched on everything from Russian espionage to Iranian assassination plots, and from the present competition with China to the violent echoes of last century’s conflict in Northern Ireland."

“...The fact that the man wanted to attack soldiers is not necessarily unusual for an Islamist perpetrator, says terrorism expert Hans-Jakob Schindler from the Counter Extremism Project (CEP): ‘The military is always part of the target spectrum.’ Uniformed soldiers are potentially more capable of defending themselves than average civilians and are therefore a riskier target. But: ‘An act against the military also brings the perpetrator even more 'fame' in terrorist propaganda.’ And: ‘Terrorists naturally also act according to the principle of capacity and opportunity. When an opportunity arises, they strike.’ Attacking soldiers during their lunch break and using the element of surprise could have been just such an opportunity.”

"According to the police, the man is an 18-year-old who was born in Austria and has Bosnian roots. There are many indications that the incident has a radical Islamist background, says extremism expert Hans-Jakob Schindler from the Counter Extremism Project (CEP). Why did the Austrian choose Munich as his target? "There may be a connection to the anniversary of the 1972 Olympic attacks," says Schindler. On September 5, 52 years ago, Palestinian terrorists carried out an attack on Israeli athletes at the Summer Games in Munich and murdered eleven Olympic participants."