The German security authorities repeatedly stated that many of these women did not want to return to Germany. However, a paper by researcher Sofia Koller from the international non-profit organization "Counter Extremism Project" from February 2024 shows that several women did want to return even then. According to the Federal Ministry of the Interior, around 40 percent of the approximately 1,150 people who traveled from Germany to Syria or Iraq returned to Germany, around 25 percent of whom were women. The security authorities assume that a smaller proportion of the returnees continue to hold Salafist-jihadist views. The Bavarian Office for the Protection of the Constitution's 2023 report states that this applies to two of the 16 returnees in Bavaria.

Hans-Jakob Schindler classifies these groups as extremely dangerous: "Firstly, the network poses a danger because there is a network of violence-oriented individuals. At some point, it will become difficult for the security authorities to monitor everyone at the same time. And secondly, all kinds of attack scenarios are played out in these channels, from bomb attacks to knife attacks." The Center for Monitoring Analysis and Strategy, CeMAS for short, has found more than 650 Germans in 164 "Terrorgram" groups since 2022. CeMAS expert Miro Dittrich is particularly concerned that many Germans are so heavily involved in these groups: "It is alarming that some very young people are active in these channels. 12- or 13-year-olds who are already at the end of a radicalization process. Some of them order explosives and plan to commit mass murders for an extreme right-wing ideology." He warns that the network could continue to try to motivate attacks - in Germany too.

Alexander Ritzmann from the Counter Extremism Project has been researching the phenomenon for years and believes there is a danger that shadow militias could emerge from some of the groups and strike on D-Day. Day X is supposed to be the assumption of power by a right-wing dictator. The historical model for part of the movement is the Sturmabteilung (SA) of the NSDAP. Also Julian M.'s men in Berlin. In October 2024, a DJV member wrote to his leader in a chat that he now wanted to set up his own "subgroup along the lines of the SA".

The demonstrations also serve to mobilize people. Terrorism expert Hans-Jakob Schindler from the "Counter Extremism Project" think tank is convinced. From the beginning, this was an integral part of Hamas' strategy. These demonstrations were not spontaneous, but part of a relatively well thought-out tactic. The expert emphasizes that it must be possible to criticize the Israeli government. "But what took place here was a glorification of a pogrom-like act of terror," says Schindler. In April 2025, pro-Palestinian activists occupy the Emil Fischer lecture hall at Berlin's Humboldt University. The rector tries to de-escalate the situation, but in the end the police clear the place. The result: property damage of up to 100,000 euros and 100 investigations. In recent months, such pro-Palestine actions rarely seem to be a spontaneous expression of political anger - rather an expression of a targeted strategy by Hamas activists and their sympathizers. There are clear references to the terrorist organization in the occupation: slogans such as "From the River to the Sea" and banners with red triangles - a Hamas symbol used to mark targets - dominate the scene.

Ian Acheson, a former government adviser on extremism in jails, said: “Emergency mass release of prisoners, while necessary, only resulted in a transfer of risk from overcrowded prisons to under-policed communities, with a probation service already on its knees.

“It seems likely we will be here again soon with unsuitable offenders released earlier than a judge directed with a higher likelihood of harm in the community. The only viable response is ‘safety first’, with recidivists not properly prepared for release.”

Terrorism expert Hans-Jakob Schindler warns in the NZZ: "The fact that the group targeted the well-attended park suggests that they may have been toying with the idea of committing a mass attack." The process not only reveals plans - it shows a strategic U-turn. Europe is apparently no longer a place of retreat for Hamas - but a target for attack. The organization is under pressure in Gaza. Israel strikes back after the massacre on October 7. On the defensive, Hamas is now apparently looking for a "counter-attack" - in the cities of Europe. "As Israel's second-largest arms supplier, Germany is a logical target," says Schindler. "In the terrorist organization's mind, attacks could be a way to break Germany's solidarity with Israel."