“... The people who have been in prison so far cannot therefore be described as prisoners or detainees. "They are hostages of the regime," says Schindler, who now heads the Counter Extremism Project, a think tank that focuses on terrorism. Ultimately, the Iranians are not interested in giving the German detainees a fair trial, but rather in convicting them on flimsy evidence in order to use them as political bargaining chips. This was also the case with Helmut Hofer. "The Iranians' idea was to exchange him for the terrorist Darabi and his accomplices," says Schindler. Kazem Darabi was the mastermind behind the Mykonos attack in Berlin, in which four Kurdish politicians in exile were killed. He was sentenced to life imprisonment. Germany did not allow itself to be blackmailed by Iran.” 

CEP Senior Advisor Ian Acheson writes: "Shawcross has now disagreed publicly. The Home Office had, he said, ‘ignored’ key recommendations to beef up Prevent’s performance and the glass remained only ‘half full.’ I have some experience of bureaucratic sleight of hand at work when it comes to reviews and recommendations. When I was tasked by the Government to look into the Prison Service’s colossal and unforgivable failures in containing Islamist extremism a few years ago, I made 69 recommendations which were mysteriously repurposed into 11 without my consent; eight were finally accepted."

Alexander Ritzmann from the Counter Extremism Project has been researching the phenomenon for years and believes there is a danger that shadow militias could emerge from some of the groups and strike on D-Day. Day X is supposed to be the assumption of power by a right-wing dictator. The historical model for part of the movement is the Sturmabteilung (SA) of the NSDAP. Also Julian M.'s men in Berlin. In October 2024, a DJV member wrote to his leader in a chat that he now wanted to set up his own "subgroup along the lines of the SA".

The demonstrations also serve to mobilize people. Terrorism expert Hans-Jakob Schindler from the "Counter Extremism Project" think tank is convinced. From the beginning, this was an integral part of Hamas' strategy. These demonstrations were not spontaneous, but part of a relatively well thought-out tactic. The expert emphasizes that it must be possible to criticize the Israeli government. "But what took place here was a glorification of a pogrom-like act of terror," says Schindler. In April 2025, pro-Palestinian activists occupy the Emil Fischer lecture hall at Berlin's Humboldt University. The rector tries to de-escalate the situation, but in the end the police clear the place. The result: property damage of up to 100,000 euros and 100 investigations. In recent months, such pro-Palestine actions rarely seem to be a spontaneous expression of political anger - rather an expression of a targeted strategy by Hamas activists and their sympathizers. There are clear references to the terrorist organization in the occupation: slogans such as "From the River to the Sea" and banners with red triangles - a Hamas symbol used to mark targets - dominate the scene.

Ian Acheson, a former government adviser on extremism in jails, said: “Emergency mass release of prisoners, while necessary, only resulted in a transfer of risk from overcrowded prisons to under-policed communities, with a probation service already on its knees.

“It seems likely we will be here again soon with unsuitable offenders released earlier than a judge directed with a higher likelihood of harm in the community. The only viable response is ‘safety first’, with recidivists not properly prepared for release.”

Terrorism expert Hans-Jakob Schindler warns in the NZZ: "The fact that the group targeted the well-attended park suggests that they may have been toying with the idea of committing a mass attack." The process not only reveals plans - it shows a strategic U-turn. Europe is apparently no longer a place of retreat for Hamas - but a target for attack. The organization is under pressure in Gaza. Israel strikes back after the massacre on October 7. On the defensive, Hamas is now apparently looking for a "counter-attack" - in the cities of Europe. "As Israel's second-largest arms supplier, Germany is a logical target," says Schindler. "In the terrorist organization's mind, attacks could be a way to break Germany's solidarity with Israel."

It is a move endorsed by Ian Acheson, a former prison governor whose 2016 review of Islamist extremism led to the introduction of SCs. He believes Abedi should be kept in total isolation, even if it 'turns him mad'. Speaking to the Mail last night, he said: 'We have to be blunt here. Some people cannot be redeemed and they will not stop as a threat to staff until they are physically incapable. Instead of pandering to the human rights of such offenders we must reorientate our approach to containment, isolation and control for the 'spectacular few'. 'Abedi is one of those. He made a free choice to murder dozens of innocent people. His rights must always be subordinate to those looking after him.'

Dr Hans-Jakob Schindler, Senior Director, CEP is interviewed by The Bayerischer Rundfunk on the planned extradition of an Islamist preacher to Yemen.