Edmund Fitton-Brown, CEP senior advisor, and Ari Heistein, CEP nonresident fellow, write: How will the Houthis respond to the devastating Israeli strikes on Iran? This moment could prove decisive for both the Iran-led axis and the Houthis’ role within it. Historically, the Houthis have demonstrated a high tolerance for risk. This approach has allowed them to achieve far more than many would have thought possible a decade ago. At the same time, they are strategic actors who consistently prioritize their position within Yemen above all else. With that in mind, there are three key reasons to assess that the Houthis will play a limited supporting role in responding to Israeli strikes on Iran, one that aligns with Tehran’s objectives but does not place them at the forefront of the response.

CEP Senior Advisor Edmund Fitton-Brown writes: "As British Ambassador to Yemen from 2015 to 2017, and later in counterterrorism roles at the UN, I watched with growing frustration as Washington, despite its early clarity, lost the plot in Yemen – with consequences that are now rippling across the Red Sea and into Israel.

In 2014, the international community got it right. UN Security Council Resolution 2140 blamed the right culprits: former President Ali Abdullah Saleh and the Houthi leadership. The Houthis, a small sectarian militia allied with Saleh, were trying to hijack Yemen’s democratic transition – and the world recognized that. When…"

In this episode, Daniel J. Levy speaks with Edmund Fitton-Brown, former UK Ambassador to Yemen, about the evolving Houthi threat and its implications for Israel, the Gulf states, and the broader regional balance of power. They explore the role of the Houthis in Iran’s attempts to project power in the region and in ongoing talks about the Iranian nuclear programme.

Edmund Fitton-Brown is a veteran British diplomat who served as the UK’s Ambassador to Yemen from 2015 to 2017 and later coordinated UN expert panels on ISIL, Al-Qaeda, and the Taliban. He holds advisory or fellowship positions with the Counter Extremism Project, the Middle East Institute, The Soufan Center and New America.

CEP Senior Advisor Edmund Fitton-Brown writes: As British Ambassador from 2015 to 2017 I saw up close and was involved in negotiating the international response to the Houthi takeover of large parts of Yemen that began in earnest in 2014. I then continued to observe Yemen from a counterterrorism perspective with the United Nations after 2017. The story that has not been adequately told is how the international community got its response right in 2014; but then progressively lost its way over the following four years, ending in the shameful Stockholm Agreement of December 2018.

CEP Nonresident Fellow Ari Heistein writes: "Despite rumors of high-level assassinations and the destruction of secret facilities, it is too early to declare the American campaign in Yemen a success. Still, there is reason to believe the Houthis have suffered a significant setback."