Eye on Extremism: October 31, 2023

Associated Press: Israel Pushes Deeper Into Gaza And Frees Hamas Captive; Netanyahu Rejects Calls For Cease-Fire

“Israeli ground forces pushed deeper into Gaza on Monday, advancing in tanks and other armored vehicles on the territory’s main city and freeing a soldier held captive by Hamas militants. The Israeli prime minister rejected calls for a cease-fire as airstrikes landed near hospitals where thousands of Palestinians are sheltering beside the wounded. The military said a soldier captured during Hamas’ brutal Oct. 7 incursion was rescued in Gaza — the first rescue since the weekslong war began. Military officials provided few details but said in a statement that Pvt. Ori Megidish, 19, was “doing well” and had met with her family. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed her home, saying the “achievement” by Israel’s security forces “illustrates our commitment to free all the hostages.” He also rejected calls for a cease-fire to facilitate the release of captives or end the war, which he has said will be long and difficult. “Calls for a cease-fire are calls for Israel to surrender to Hamas,” he told a news conference. “That will not happen.” Netanyahu, who faces mounting anger over Israel’s failure to prevent the worst surprise attack on the country in a half century, also said he had no plans to resign.”

Reuters: Afghans Return To Taliban Rule As Pakistan Moves To Expel 1.7 Million

“As the clock ticked down to the Nov. 1 deadline Pakistan set for undocumented migrants to leave the country, Muhammad Rahim boarded a bus from Karachi to the Afghan border. "We'd live here our whole life if they didn't send us back," said the 35-year-old Afghan national, who was born in Pakistan, married a Pakistani woman and raised his Pakistan-born children in the port city - but has no Pakistani identity documents. The Taliban government in Afghanistan said some 60,000 Afghans returned between Sept 23 to Oct 22 from Pakistan, which announced on Oct 4 it will expel undocumented migrants that do not leave. And recent daily returnee figures are three times higher than normal, Taliban refugee ministry spokesman Abdul Mutaleb Haqqani told Reuters on Oct 26. Near Karachi's Sohrab Goth area - home to one of Pakistan's largest Afghan settlements - a bus service operator named Azizullah said he had laid on extra services to cope with the exodus. Nearby, lines formed before competitor bus services headed to Afghanistan. "Before I used to run one bus a week, now we have four to five a week," said Azizullah, who - like all the Afghan migrants Reuters interviewed - spoke on condition that he be identified by only one name due to the sensitivity of the matter.”

CEP Mentions

European Interest: The Far-Right Exploits The Hamas Attack In Israel. Online Antisemitism And Islamophobia On The Rise

“...The Counter Extremism Project (CEP) reported a tweet made by a verified account containing a video uploaded to Twitter/X on October 18, with antisemitic content receiving over 1.2 million views. The video praised Nazi Germany’s economic and monetary policies and Hitler for confronting German bankers. An accompanying tweet spread antisemitic conspiracy theories, encouraging the viewing of two antisemitic and pro-Hitler faux documentaries. CEP reports weekly on the methods used by extremists to exploit the Internet and social media platforms to recruit followers and incite violence. CEP also localised a website hosting more than 100 gigabytes of far-right books promoting white supremacy, antisemitism, anti-LGBTQ sentiment, and Holocaust denial. It comprised instruction manuals to build explosives and other weapons as well. White supremacist and neo-Nazi online communities on Telegram celebrated the recent Hamas attacks on Israel. They also accused Israel and Jewish organisations of potentially creating a refugee crisis in Europe.”

Tällberg Foundation Podcast: Can Violent Extremists Leave Their Pasts Behind?

“Guest host Michael Niconchuk looks for answers with experts Juncal Fernandez-Garayzabal and Noah Tucker. Violent extremism is growing globally. It doesn’t know religion or creed. Where once it was confined to specific ideology or identity groups, at least in public discourse and discussion, now it appears across societies, across cultures and across borders. Violent extremist ideologies and actions are becoming part of the global fabric. Why do people get involved in this type of violence? How can they disengage? Can violent extremists be helped to reenter society integrated in healthy, socially positive, empowered ways to engage as productive and peaceful citizens?”

TVP World: Threat Of Rising Terrorism From Mass Migration

“In recent times, Europe has been grappling with a heightened terrorist threat, with events like the firebomb attack on a Berlin synagogue and killings in Belgium and France sending shockwaves across the continent.  In a region where security concerns are on the rise, we aim to understand what measures have failed in Belgium and France and whether European security services can effectively counter the modern threat of terrorism. To discuss the implications, responses, and potential solutions, we were joined by two political analysts and observers: Ryszard Machnikowski, Dean of the Faculty of International and Political Studies at the University of Lodz, and Hans-Jakob Schindler, Senior Director of the Counter Extremism Project.”

Commentary: Hamas Is Everyone’s Problem

“..."The broader impact of the Hamas attacks—even before a potentially escalating regional war—is the possibility that terrorist groups around the world will try to match the spectacular carnage that Hamas pulled off earlier this month, which had a death toll equivalent to multiple Sept. 11 attacks on a per capita basis in a small country such as Israel,” O’Donnell writes. And the Islamic State, the senior director of the Counter Extremism Project tells O’Donnell, “is clearly trying to show its relevance.” The effect of competition on transnational terror groups is more pronounced than on localized groups for reasons that should be obvious: The financial rewards and the recruiting grounds are nearly limitless. That gets at one reason Hamas’s fate is every nation’s problem. Reading about the Labour Party’s burgeoning revolt against leader Keir Starmer for his support for Israel—Starmer, who had to rebuild the party from the rubble of the anti-Semite Jeremy Corbyn’s fanatical leadership—one gets the impression Labour MPs think Hamas is Israel’s problem and Israel is Britain’s problem. This is exactly backwards. And the potential for terrorist violence the world over isn’t the only reason Labour’s line of thinking—as echoed by a much smaller segment of the Democratic Party but a larger share of academia and media here in the U.S.—is wrong.”

United States

Fox News: GOP Senators Demand Enhanced Border Security Plan From Biden Over Threats By 'Global Terrorist Groups'

“Senate Republicans are demanding the Biden administration show Congress a plan by next week to crack down on national security threats at the southern border after a record number of people on the FBI’s terror watch list were arrested by border officials last month.  A letter led by Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind., and signed by 10 more GOP senators pointed to the ongoing war between Israel and terror group Hamas in "the importance of vigilance against global terrorist groups both internationally and domestically." The message, addressed to President Biden himself, requested that he "provide Members of Congress a senior-level classified briefing" on his "plan and intentions to support the security of the homeland." The senators are asking for the briefing to be held no later than Nov. 8. "As President of the United States, we expect you to take every necessary step to ensure the protection of the homeland and to both prioritize and resource this task accordingly," the senators wrote. "However, the nature of the foreign challenge, combined with vulnerabilities at home — starting at our Southern border — warrant a proactive and comprehensive assessment."”

Fox News: Senator Urges Biden, DHS To Disclose Info On Terrorist Encounters At Southern Border Amid Israel-Hamas War

“Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall reiterated his push for federal agencies to be transparent about the number of terrorist encounters at the U.S. southern border amid growing national security concerns in response to the Israel-Hamas war on "Sunday Night in America with Trey Gowdy." Marshall stressed the urgency to address these concerns during his interview with FOX News' Trey Gowdy and expressed concerns about the lack of information provided to the public and lawmakers regarding individuals on terrorist and alien watch lists attempting to cross the southern border. "We’ve encountered over 170 terrorists on the terrorist watch list in the past year. In the past two years, thousands of people on the alien watch list as well, 2,000 Chinese nationals on this watch list have crossed the border as well," Marshall said. Marshall called on the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to disclose details about these encounters in an effort to uphold public safety. "All we're asking DHS to do is tell us where these people are, who they are, what they're doing, are they still in the country, were they caught and released? We don't want to be asleep at the wheel like Israel was when Hamas attacked Israel," he said.”

Lebanon

The New York Times: Hezbollah Hesitates As Israel Strikes Gaza

“As Israeli troops move deeper south into Gaza with the goal of destroying Hamas, the world is closely watching what happens on Israel’s northern border, where its forces have engaged for weeks in intense clashes with another, more powerful foe, Hezbollah. Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group, has found itself in an awkward position since its ally Hamas launched a deadly, surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7. Now, after years of spoiling for a fight with Israel, Hezbollah is torn between maintaining its credibility as a defender of the Palestinians, and its hesitation to get involved in a full-scale war. Throughout its 40-year history, Hezbollah has defined itself as a resistance movement dedicated to protecting Lebanon, battling Israel and backing the Palestinians’ quest for statehood. Yet after three days of Israeli ground incursions into Gaza and as the Palestinian death toll climbs over 8,000, Hezbollah’s response has so far been worrying but restrained. Hezbollah’s balancing act speaks to its outsize role in Lebanon, a small, dysfunctional country on Israel’s northern border. It is Lebanon’s most powerful political and military force, meaning that not even the Lebanese government can control its decisions, even when they affect the whole country. Hezbollah is also the most powerful node in a network of Iran-backed militias across the Middle East, which includes Hamas, meaning that its calculations often transcend Lebanon’s borders.”

Middle East

The Independent: Terrorists Are ‘Very Likely’ To Carry Out Attacks In The UAE, According To Updated Foreign Office Advice

“British tourists visiting the United Arab Emirates should be wary of the increased threat of terrorist attacks, according to the latest advice from the Foreign Office (FCDO). Travel advice for the popular Gulf destination, which welcomes around 1.5 million Brits per year and includes the emirates of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, was amended on Sunday 29 October. It added an “updated assessment that the risk of terrorist attacks happening in the UAE is very likely”. Further FCDO advice states that “attacks could be indiscriminate, including in places visited by foreigners. “Terrorists continue to issue statements threatening to carry out attacks in the Gulf region. These include references to attacks on western interests. You should maintain a high level of security awareness, particularly in public places and at public events.” The Israel-Hamas conflict is not mentioned in the new advice. The FCDO provides background information that in January 2022, “a number of missiles and unmanned aerial systems (drones) were launched into the UAE from Yemen in early 2022, targeting infrastructure and high profile locations.”

The New York Times: How Years Of Israeli Failures On Hamas Led To A Devastating Attack

“It was 3 a.m. on Oct. 7, and Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s domestic security service, still could not determine if what he was seeing was just another Hamas military exercise. At the headquarters of his service, Shin Bet, officials had spent hours monitoring Hamas activity in the Gaza Strip, which was unusually active for the middle of the night. Israeli intelligence and national security officials, who had convinced themselves that Hamas had no interest in going to war, initially assumed it was just a nighttime exercise. Their judgment that night might have been different had they been listening to traffic on the hand-held radios of Hamas militants. But Unit 8200, Israel’s signals intelligence agency, had stopped eavesdropping on those networks a year earlier because they saw it as a waste of effort. As time passed that night, Mr. Bar thought that Hamas might attempt a small-scale assault. He discussed his concerns with Israel’s top generals and ordered the “Tequila” team — a group of elite counterterrorism forces — to deploy to Israel’s southern border. Until nearly the start of the attack, nobody believed the situation was serious enough to wake up Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to three Israeli defense officials.”

Reuters: Israel Attacks Hamas Gunmen Inside Gaza Tunnels

“Israel said its forces attacked Hamas gunmen inside the Islamists' vast tunnel network beneath Gaza, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed calls for a halt to fighting to ease humanitarian crisis. The tunnels are a key objective for Israel as it expands ground operations inside Gaza to wipe out the ruling Islamist Hamas movement following its surprise attack three weeks ago that Israeli authorities say killed more than 1,400 people. "Over the last day, combined IDF combat forces struck approximately 300 targets, including anti-tank missile and rocket launch posts below shafts, as well as military compounds inside underground tunnels belonging to the Hamas terrorist organization," the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said in a statement. Militants responded with anti-tank missiles and machine gun fire, it added. "The soldiers killed terrorists and directed air forces to real-time strikes on targets and terror infrastructure," the IDF said. Israeli armed forces also bombed Gaza overnight in air, sea and ground attacks, targeting northwestern areas of the Palestinian enclave where Israeli troops were operating on the ground, witnesses said on Tuesday.”

Reuters: Hamas Releases New Hostage Video, Netanyahu Denounces 'Cruel Propaganda'

“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned as "cruel psychological propaganda" a video released on Monday by Hamas that shows three hostages seized by the Islamist movement on Oct. 7. The video shows three woman - identified by Netanyahu as Yelena Trupanob, Danielle Aloni and Rimon Kirsht - sitting side by side against a bare wall, with Aloni addressing an angry message to the prime minister. Accusing Netanyahu of failing to protect Israeli citizens during the deadly Hamas attack and failing to get them back home, she called for an agreement to secure their release in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. "You were supposed to free all of us. You committed to free us all. But instead we are carrying your political, security, military, diplomatic failure," she said. In a statement, Netanyahu repeated a pledge to make every effort to bring the hostages home. "Abducted by Hamas, which is committing war crimes, I embrace you. Our hearts are with you and with the other captives. We are doing everything to bring home all the captives and the missing," he said. Aloni's father, Ramos Aloni, said his heart almost stopped when he saw his daughter in the video, feeling shock but also relief that she was alive.”

China

The Independent: What China Wants From Israel-Hamas War

“China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, discussed the conflict with officials in Washington at the weekend amid fears of a bigger regional war. The US has pledged it would work with China on trying to find a resolution. Mr Wang has also spoken to his Israeli and Palestinian counterparts after China's Middle East special envoy Zhai Jun flew to the region to meet Arab leaders. It has also been one of the most vocal proponents of a ceasefire in UN meetings. There are hopes China could tap into its close relationship with Iran, which backs Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, to de-escalate the situation. US officials apparently pressed Mr Wang to "urge calm" with the Iranians, reported the Financial Times. China is Iran's biggest trade partner, and earlier this year Beijing brokered a rare détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Tehran says it "stands ready to strengthen communication with China" on resolving the situation in Gaza. As the Chinese government has had a relatively balanced relationship with all actors in the conflict, they could be perceived as an honest broker, said Dawn Murphy, an associate professor who studies Chinese foreign policy at the National War College under the US Department of Defense.”

United Kingdom

The Guardian: Counter-Terror Chiefs On Alert For Iranian Activity In UK Exploiting Gaza War

“British counter-terrorism officers are monitoring closely if Iran will try to exploit the Israel-Hamas war for its own ends in the UK, amid wider anxieties that Tehran is an increasing security menace to dissidents and critics. Concerns about Russia and China are well established, but Iran’s campaign of intimidation and harassment has been the most visible development in the domestic threat picture over the last 12 months. The fear now is whether Iran will seek to encourage radical groups or even terrorist activities in the UK as Israel’s deadly bombardment and ground assault of Gaza continues, although it is not clear there is any evidence of this to date. “We’re alive to the risk,” one source said. Such a development would be a significant step up in terms of Iranian state activity in the UK, although such is the intensity of the crisis unleashed in the Middle East over the past three weeks that nothing is being ruled out by insiders, who know that violent conflict abroad can radicalise or galvanise individuals to violence at home. Last November, Ken McCallum, MI5’s director, said Iran had been engaged in 10 plots “to kidnap or even kill British or UK-based individuals” in that year to date. By February this year the figure had increased to 15. No more recent number is available.”

Technology

The New York Times: A.I. Muddies Israel-Hamas War In Unexpected Way

“It was a gruesome image that shot rapidly around the internet: a charred body, described as a deceased child, that was apparently photographed in the opening days of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Some observers on social media quickly dismissed it as an “A.I.-generated fake” — created using artificial intelligence tools that can produce photorealistic images with a few clicks. Several A.I. specialists have since concluded that the technology was probably not involved. By then, however, the doubts about its veracity were already widespread. Since Hamas’s terror attack on Oct. 7, disinformation watchdogs have feared that fakes created by A.I. tools, including the realistic renderings known as deepfakes, would confuse the public and bolster propaganda efforts. So far, they have been correct in their prediction that the technology would loom large over the war — but not exactly for the reason they thought. Disinformation researchers have found relatively few A.I. fakes, and even fewer that are convincing. Yet the mere possibility that A.I. content could be circulating is leading people to dismiss genuine images, video and audio as inauthentic.”

Daily Dose

Extremists: Their Words. Their Actions.

In Their Own Words:

We reiterate once again that the brigades will directly target US bases across the region in case the US enemy commits a folly and decides to strike our resistance fighters and their camps [in Iraq].

Abu Ali al-Askari, Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH) Security Official Mar. 2023
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