"It is likely that, similar to Ali Khamenei's case in 1989, the decision will fall on a weak candidate. In 1989, Khamenei was considered harmless by all religious schools in Qom because he lacked his own religious power base," Hans-Jakob Schindler, head of the Berlin-based think tank Counter Extremism Project, told our editorial team. "Now it will be crucial to find a candidate who does not pose an obvious threat to the enormous power of the various branches of the Revolutionary Guard, but who maintains good relations with the Guard's overall organization." However, the negotiations within the Assembly of Experts could also result in a leadership body of religious clerics instead of a new Supreme Leader.