[{"command":"openDialog","selector":"#drupal-modal","settings":null,"data":"\u003Cdiv class=\u0022ds-1col clearfix\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n  \n  \u003Cp\u003EArab news outlets have reported on the two-decades-long conflict within the failed state of Somalia and the contagion it has caused in east Africa. Al-Shabab confirmed many media reports stating after the Westgate shopping mall attack was in retaliation for Kenyan support of AMISOM\u2019s mission in Somalia, and demanded that Kenya pull out. \u0026nbsp;The group\u2019s first reprisal mission for Godane\u2019s death in Uganda was ultimately foiled by Ugandan security forces. A few years earlier, the group claimed responsibility for killing 76 people in Kampala, citing Uganda\u2019s participation in AMISOM as a motive as well.\u003Cspan class=\u0022footnote\u0022\u003E\u201cUganda foils \u2018terrorist\u2019 attack,\u201d Al Jazeera English, September 13, 2014,\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/africa\/2014\/09\/uganda-foils-terrorist-attack-201491312302715418.html\u0022\u003Ehttp:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/africa\/2014\/09\/uganda-foils-terrorist-attack-201491312302715418.html\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr\u003EMilitant profiles have emerged in African news media. Al-Shabab defectors are shown as traumatized and pressured victims. One former member told how, at 13 years of age, he joined the group after they took control of his town.\u003Cspan class=\u0022footnote\u0022\u003E Shukri Mohamed, \u201cDozens of al-Shabaab members taking advantage of amnesty \u2018every day,\u2019\u201d Sabahi, September 17, 2014,\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/sabahionline.com\/en_GB\/articles\/hoa\/articles\/features\/2014\/09\/17\/feature-01\u0022\u003Ehttp:\/\/sabahionline.com\/en_GB\/articles\/hoa\/articles\/features\/2014\/09\/17\/feature-01\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr\u003EIn light of Godane\u2019s death, several news sources question the viability of Ahmed Umar Abu Ubaidah as a leader and the stability of the organization, and how it would bode for security in the region.\u003Cbr\u003EBoth Arabic and African news outlets show concern for what a splintered group could mean for the movement and the region.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cem\u003EThe East African\u003C\/em\u003E\u0026nbsp;notes that the group will most likely tap into its cells across East Africa and make a push for recruitment.\u003Cspan class=\u0022footnote\u0022\u003EGaaki Kigambo, \u201cWhy splintered al-Shabaab worries security experts,\u201d\u0026nbsp;\u003Cem\u003EEast African\u003C\/em\u003E, September 13, 2014,\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.theeastafrican.co.ke\/news\/-\/2558\/2451684\/-\/5jmdxez\/-\/index.html\u0022\u003Ehttp:\/\/www.theeastafrican.co.ke\/news\/-\/2558\/2451684\/-\/5jmdxez\/-\/index.html\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003C\/span\u003E\u0026nbsp;Though the group\u2019s strategic and tactical directions are uncertain, analysts maintain the group will try to position itself as more global in nature. Such positioning could include strengthening ties with al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Boko Haram, and ISIS.\u003Cspan class=\u0022footnote\u0022\u003EPaul Crompton, \u201cSomalia\u2019s Islamist al-Shabaab at risk of splintering,\u201d Al Arabiya News, September 9, 2014,\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/en\/perspective\/analysis\/2014\/09\/09\/Somalia-s-Islamist-al-Shabaab-at-risk-of-splintering.html\u0022\u003Ehttp:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/en\/perspective\/analysis\/2014\/09\/09\/Somalia-s-Islamist-al-Shabaab-at-risk-of-splintering.html\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003C\/span\u003E\u0026nbsp;This direction could be indicated by al-Shabab\u2019s recommitment to al-Qaeda shortly after Abu Ubaidah\u2019s appointment as the new leader. The group could also potentially splinter and morph into a different structure, especially if internal power struggles recur.\u003Cspan class=\u0022footnote\u0022\u003EPaul Crompton, \u201cSomalia\u2019s Islamist al-Shabaab at risk of splintering,\u201d Al Arabiya News, September 9, 2014,\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/en\/perspective\/analysis\/2014\/09\/09\/Somalia-s-Islamist-al-Shabaab-at-risk-of-splintering.html\u0022\u003Ehttp:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/en\/perspective\/analysis\/2014\/09\/09\/Somalia-s-Islamist-al-Shabaab-at-risk-of-splintering.html\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr\u003ETo a lesser but significant degree, news outlets have highlighted the 45-day amnesty that the Somali government has extended to al-Shabab fighters who renounce the group.\u003Cspan class=\u0022footnote\u0022\u003E \u201cMohamud extends al-Shabaab amnesty offer for 60 days,\u201d Sabahi, October 28, 2014,\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/sabahionline.com\/en_GB\/articles\/hoa\/articles\/newsbriefs\/2014\/10\/28\/newsbrief-01\u0022\u003Ehttp:\/\/sabahionline.com\/en_GB\/articles\/hoa\/articles\/newsbriefs\/2014\/10\/28\/newsbrief-01\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/span\u003E\u0026nbsp;Horn of Africa news website\u0026nbsp;\u003Cem\u003ESabahi\u003C\/em\u003E, sponsored by U.S. Africa Command, highlighted President Mohamud\u2019s 60-day extension of the amnesty on October 27, 2014,\u003Ca href=\u0022#_ftn7\u0022\u003E \u003C\/a\u003E claiming that after the initial edict, approximately 30 militants surrendered daily.\u0026nbsp; The national amnesty offered, in lieu of punishment, a nine-month rehabilitation program and a subsequent return to normal life.\u003Cspan class=\u0022footnote\u0022\u003E Shukri Mohamed, \u201cDozens of al-Shabaab members taking advantage of amnesty \u2018every day,\u2019\u201d Sabahi, September 17, 2014,\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/sabahionline.com\/en_GB\/articles\/hoa\/articles\/features\/2014\/09\/17\/feature-01\u0022\u003Ehttp:\/\/sabahionline.com\/en_GB\/articles\/hoa\/articles\/features\/2014\/09\/17\/feature-01\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr\u003EIn contrast, Western media coverage put less emphasis on the amnesty program, preferring to focus on al-Shabab\u2019s ties to al-Qaeda and now potentially to ISIS. Godane, for example, is believed to have established ties with ISIS militias during their expansion into Syria and Iraq and offered al-Shabab fighters in support.\u003Cspan class=\u0022footnote\u0022\u003E \u201cSOMALIA: Deceased Al Shabab chief had ties with ISIS, sources,\u201d RBC Radio Raxanreeb.com, 30 October 2014,\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.raxanreeb.com\/2014\/10\/somalia-deceased-al-shabab-chief-had-ties-with-isis-sources\/\u0022\u003Ehttp:\/\/www.raxanreeb.com\/2014\/10\/somalia-deceased-al-shabab-chief-had-ties-with-isis-sources\/\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n","dialogOptions":{"minWidth":850,"resizable":true,"modal":true,"title":"Arab and African Media"}},{"command":"doFootnotes"}]